INFLASI DI INDONESIA: SELEKSI MODEL EKONOMETRIKA

Imamudin Yuliadi

Abstract


Abstract: Inflation impact on macroeconomic performance such as the exchange rate, economic growth, interest rates, exports, imports, wages and the price index of stocks and securities in the capital markets. To get an idea relevant to the topics raised in this study then formulated the research model on inflation and its implications on the fundamentals of the Indonesian economy with multiple equation model approach, semi logarithm, error correction model (ECM), and multiple equations, partial adjustment model (PAM), this phenomenon shows that the increase in the level of SBI will increase the efficiency of the financial sector to further boost the amount of lending and reduce the amount of bad loans. While the value of the variable regression on the amount of currency in circulation amounted -132.7688 means that if the amount of currency in circulation rose  one percent will push down inflation of -132.76 percent. Circumstances indicate that the increase in the amount of currency will encourage the real sector to absorb the amount of money circulating in the economy such as the increase in consumption, investment, production, etc., thereby decreasing the rate of inflation.

 

Abstrak: Inflasi berdampak terhadap kinerja ekonomi makro lainnya seperti nilai tukar rupiah (kurs), pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat bunga, ekspor, impor, tingkat upah dan indeks harga saham dan surat berharga di pasar modal. Dalam studi ini dirumuskan model penelitian mengenai inflasi dan im­plikasinya pada fundamental perekonomian Indonesia dengan menggu­nakan model pendekat­an persamaan berganda, semi logaritma, error correction model (ECM), dan persamaan ber­ganda, partial adjustment model (PAM). Fenomena ini menun­jukkan bahwa kenaikan tingkat SBI akan meningkatkan efisiensi sektor keuangan untuk lebih mendorong peningkatan jumlah penyaluran kredit dan mengurangi jumlah kredit macet. Sedangkan nilai regresi pada variabel jumlah uang kartal beredar sebesar –132,7688 artinya apabila jumlah uang kartal beredar naik satu persen akan mendorong penurunan inflasi sebesar -132,76 persen. Keadaan menunjuk­kan bahwa kenaikan jumlah uang kartal akan mendorong sektor riil untuk menyerap jumlah uang beredar dalam kegiatan ekonomi seperti peningkatan konsumsi, investasi, produksi, dan sebagainya, sehingga akan menurunkan tingkat inflasi.

 


Keywords


demand pull inflation; cost push inflation; economic distortions; exchange rate

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