PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN PENENTUAN TITIK AMBANG BATAS INFLASI DI INDONESIA

Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan, Nano Prawoto

Abstract


Abstract: The study aims to see the relation between two macro indicators which are economic growth and inflation. The data are obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) and Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) from the year 1971-2012. The analysis use causality granger test and non-linier regression. The result of this analysis shows that there is correlation between inflation and economic growth. There is no evidence of inflation dot (1 to 20%) that has negative influence toward the economic growth; population does not have significant influence to the economic growth while investment has positive impact on economic growth.

 

Abstrak: Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat sejauh mana hubungan antara dua indikator makro ekonomi yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Data yang digunakan diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) pada tahun 1971-2012. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah uji kausalitas granger dan regresi non-linier. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan dua arah yang saling berkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Tidak ditemukan titik inflasi (1 sampai 20 persen) yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan populasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan investasi berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.

 

 


Keywords


economic growth; inflation; population; investment; Granger causality

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.15.1.1263

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