KETERKAITAN ANTARA NILAI TUKAR, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM DI INDONESIA

Rini Setyastuti

Abstract


Abstract: This study examine the relation between exchange rate, interest rate, and stock price. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is employed to simultaneously estimate the dynamic relationship of the variables. Using monthly data covering the August 1997– May 2012 period, empirical results showed that there is no causal relation between variables in the all of period. There is only one way relation between interest rate and exchange rate in the crises period. There is a positive effect on the exchange rate when the interest rate increased.


Abstrak: Penelitian ini menguji hubungan antara nilai tukar, suku bunga, dan harga saham. Vector Autoregression (VAR) digunakan untuk secara bersamaan memperkirakan hubungan dinamis dari variabel. Penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan yang mencakup periode Agustus 1997 hingga Mei 2012. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan kausal antarvariabel dalam semua periode. Hanya ada satu cara hubungan antara tingkat bunga dan nilai tukar pada periode krisis. Ada efek positif pada nilai tukar saat suku bunga meningkat.

 


Keywords


exchange rate; stock price; interest rate; Vector Autoregression

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