Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and Technically Specified Natural Rubber 20 Export: The Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation

Inaya Cahyaningtyas, Arini Wahyu Utami, Lestari Rahayu Waluyuti

Abstract


El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes rainfall anomalies, which may disrupt Indonesia’s natural rubber production by interfering with the trees’ growth and affecting the export volume. This study analyzed the effect of ENSO dynamics on the monthly productivity of natural rubber and Technically Specified Natural Rubber (TSNR) 20 export. Monthly data from January 2006 to December 2019 were collected from the Statistics Indonesia, International Trade Centre (ITC), World Bank, Bank Indonesia, and National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Descriptive statistics unveiled that strong La Nina increased the average of monthly productivity by 3.37% to 9.68%, while strong El Nino tended to decrease productivity by 1.30% to 9.27%. Moreover, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) demonstrated the negative effect of ENSO on Indonesia’s natural rubber export, both in the short and long term.

Keywords


El Nino; La Nina; Natural rubber; Productivity; TSNR 20 export

Full Text:

PDF

References


Amirudin, A. A., Salimun, E., Tangang, F., Juneng, L., & Zuhairi, M. (2020). Differential Influences of Teleconnections from the Indian and Pacific Oceans on Rainfall Variability in Southeast Asia. Atmosphere, 11(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090886

Amoro, G., & Shen, Y. (2013). The Determinants of Agricultural Export: Cocoa and Rubber in Cote d’Ivoire. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v5n1p228

Anderson, W., Seager, R., Baethgen, W., & Cane, M. (2017). Crop production variability in North and South America forced by life-cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 239, 151–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.03.008

Antoni, M., & Tokuda, H. (2019). Identification of Obstacles and Drivers of Smallholder Rubber Farmers to Become Members of A Processing and Marketing Unit in Indonesia. Applied Economics and Finance, 6(2), 79. https://doi.org/10.11114/aef.v6i2.3938

Arumta, N., Mulyo, J. H., & Irham, I. (2019). The Export Determinants of Indonesian Cut Flower in The International Market. Agro Ekonomi, 30(1). https://doi.org/10.22146/ae.44856

Arunwarakorn, S., Suthiwartnarueput, K., & Pornchaiwiseskul, P. (2019). Forecasting equilibrium quantity and price on the world natural rubber market. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 40(1), 8–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2017.07.013

Azlan, A. H., LeeChin, T., SohKim, Y., Selvaraja, S., Rohan, R., Ariffin, I., & Palaniappan, S. (2016). Impact of El Niño on palm oil production. Planter, 92(1088), 789–806.

Bastianin, A., Lanza, A., & Manera, M. (2018). Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market. Agricultural Economics, 49(5), 623–633. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12447

Cahyo, A. N., Murti, R. H., & Putra, E. T. S. (2020). Dampak Kekeringan terhadap Proses Fisiologis, Pertumbuhan, dan Hasil Tanaman Karet (Hevea brasiliensis Mull. Arg.). Warta Perkaretan, 39(1), 39–56.

Cai, W., McPhaden, M. J., Grimm, A. M., Rodrigues, R. R., Taschetto, A. S., Garreaud, R. D., … Vera, C. (2020). Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1(4), 215–231. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., & Raissi, M. (2015). Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 15). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475535495.001

Chen, L., Li, T., Behera, S. K., & Doi, T. (2016). Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 996–1004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-5250-8

Claudia, G., Yulianto, E., & Mawardi, M. K. (2016). Pengaruh Produksi Karet Alam Domestik, Harga Karet Alam Internasional, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Volume Ekspor Karet Alam (Studi Pada Komoditi Karet Alam Indonesia Tahun 2010-2013). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB), 35(1), 165–171.

Daslin, A. (2013). Produktivitas Klon Karet pada berbagai Kondisi Lingkungan di Perkebunan. AGRIUM: Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian, 18(1).

Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2012). Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), 66–95. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.66

Dommenget, D., Bayr, T., & Frauen, C. (2013). Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2825–2847. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1475-0

Fong, Y. C., Khin, A. A., & Lim, C. S. (2018). Conceptual Review and the Production, Consumption and Price Models of the Natural Rubber Industry in Selected ASEAN Countries and World Market. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 6(4), 403–418. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2018.64.403.418

Generoso, R., Couharde, C., Damette, O., & Mohaddes, K. (2020). The growth effects of el niÑo and la niÑa: Local weather conditions matter. Annals of Economics and Statistics, (140), 83–126. https://doi.org/10.15609/ANNAECONSTAT2009.140.0083

Gutierrez, L. (2017). Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis. PLoS ONE, 12(6). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0179086

Hsiang, S. M., & Meng, K. C. (2015). Tropical Economics. American Economic Review, 105(5), 257–261. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151030

Hsiang, S. M., Meng, K. C., & Cane, M. A. (2011). Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature, 476, 438–441. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10311

Iizumi, T., Luo, J. J., Challinor, A. J., Sakurai, G., Yokozawa, M., Sakuma, H., … Yamagata, T. (2014). Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops. Nature Communications, 5, 3712. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4712

Khin, A. A., Bin, R. L. L., Kai, S. B., Teng, K. L. L., & Chiun, F. Y. (2019). Challenges of the Export for Natural Rubber Latex in the ASEAN Market. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 548, 012024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/548/1/012024

Khor, J. F., Ling, L., Yusop, Z., Tan, W. L., Ling, J. L., & Soo, E. Z. X. (2021). Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia. Agronomy, 11(11), 2189. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11112189

Kim, K., Chowdhury, R., Pant, P., Yamashita, E., & Ghimire, J. (2021). Assessment of ENSO risks to support transportation resilience. Progress in Disaster Science, 12, 100196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100196

Klaassen, F. (2004). Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade? Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(5), 817–839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.03.009

Kurniadi, A., Weller, E., Min, S. K., & Seong, M. G. (2021). Independent ENSO and IOD impacts on rainfall extremes over Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 41(6), 3640–3656. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7040

Lestari, S., Hamada, J. I., Syamsudin, F., Sunaryo, Matsumoto, J., & Yamanaka, M. D. (2016). ENSO influences on rainfall extremes around Sulawesi and Maluku Islands in the eastern Indonesian maritime continent. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 12(1), 37–41. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2016-008

Meijide, A., Badu, C. S., Moyano, F., Tiralla, N., Gunawan, D., & Knohl, A. (2018). Impact of forest conversion to oil palm and rubber plantations on microclimate and the role of the 2015 ENSO event. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 252, 208–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.013

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]. (2021). El Nino Southern Oscilliation (ENSO). USA. Retrieved from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Nóia Júnior, R. de S., & Sentelhas, P. C. (2019). Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases. Agricultural Systems, 173, 254–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.012

Oettli, P., Behera, S. K., & Yamagata, T. (2018). Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia. Scientific Reports, 8, 2271. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20298-0

Perdana, R. P. (2019). Kinerja Ekonomi Karet dan Strategi Pengembangan Hilirisasinya di Indonesia. Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi, 37(1), 25–39. https://doi.org/10.21082/fae.v37n1.2019.25-39

Qian, Y., Zhao, J., Zheng, S., Cao, Y., & Xue, L. (2020). Risk assessment of the global crop loss in ENSO events. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 116, 102845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102845

Santoso, A., Mcphaden, M. J., & Cai, W. (2017). The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(4), 1079–1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560

Saputra, J., Stevanus, C. T., & Cahyo, A. N. (2016). The Effect of El-Nino 2015 on the Rubber Plant (Hevea Brasiliensis) Growth in the Experimental Field Sembawa Research Centre. Widyariset, 2(1), 37–46. https://doi.org/10.14203/widyariset.2.1.2016.37-46

Sari, D. K., Supriana, T., & Rahmanta. (2021). Determinant factors of Indonesian rubber export to Japan. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 782, 022053. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/782/2/022053

Selvaraju, R. (2003). Impact of El Niño-southern oscillation on Indian foodgrain production. International Journal of Climatology, 23(2), 187–206. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.869

Smith, S. C., & Ubilava, D. (2017). The El Niño Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world. Global Environmental Change, 45, 151–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.05.007

Statistics Indonesia. (2021). Statistik Karet Alam Indonesia 2021. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Retrieved from https://www.bps.go.id/subject/54/perkebunan.html#subjekViewTab4

Stiegler, C., Meijide, A., Fan, Y., Ali, A. A., June, T., & Knohl, A. (2019). El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event reduces CO2 uptake of an Indonesian oil palm plantation. Biogeosciences, 16(14), 2873–2890. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2873-2019

Supari, Tangang, F., Salimun, E., Aldrian, E., Sopaheluwakan, A., & Juneng, L. (2018). ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2559–2580. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4028-8

Suresh, K. (2013). Adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate-resilient oil palm. In H. Singh, N. Rao, & K. Shivashankar (Eds.), Climate-Resilient Horticulture: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies (pp. 199–211). India: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-0974-4_18

Susetyo, I., & Hadi, H. (2012). Pemodelan Produksi Tanaman Karet Berdasarkan Potensi Klon, Tanah, Dan Iklim. Jurnal Penelitian Karet, 30(1), 23–35. https://doi.org/10.22302/ppk.jpk.v30i1.119

Suwardin, D. (2015). Evaluasi Kinerja Pengelolaan Pabrik Karet Remah: Studi Kasus di Sumatera Selatan. Jurnal Agro Industri Perkebunan, 3(2), 108–121.

Syarifa, L. F., Agustina, D. S., Nancy, C., & Supriadi, M. (2016). Dampak Rendahnya Harga Karet Terhadap Kondisi Sosial Ekonomi Petani Karet Di Sumatera Selatan. Jurnal Penelitian Karet, 34(1), 119–126. https://doi.org/10.22302/jpk.v0i0.218

Timmermann, A., An, S. Il, Kug, J. S., Jin, F. F., Cai, W., Capotondi, A., … Zhang, X. (2018). El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity. Nature, 559, 535–545. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6

Ubilava, D., & Abdolrahimi, M. (2019). The El Niño impact on maize yields is amplified in lower income teleconnected countries. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 054008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0cd0

Wahyudy, H. A., Khairizal, & Heriyanto. (2018). Perkembangan Ekspor Karet Alam Indonesia. Dinamika Pertanian, 34(2), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.25299/dp.2018.vol34(2).5409

Yanita, M., Yazid, M., Alamsyah, Z., & Mulyana, A. (2016). Determinant Analysis for Rubber Export in Indonesia. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 6(9), 478–481.

Zebiak, S. E., Orlove, B., Muñoz, Á. G., Vaughan, C., Hansen, J., Troy, T., … Garvin, S. (2015). Investigating El Niño-Southern Oscillation and society relationships. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 6(1), 17–34. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.294




DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/agraris.v8i2.14320

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Indexed By:

     

Office Address:
Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Ground Floor of F3 Building (Siti Walidah)
Jl. Brawijaya, Tamantiro, Kasihan, Bantul. 55183
Telp.: +62 274 387656, Ext.: 201
HP or WhatsApp: +62 85328737828
Email: agraris@umy.ac.id

AGRARIS is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0  (CC BY-SA 4.0) International License.