Nexus between Extreme Poverty and CO2 Emissions in Indonesia: An Empirical Investigation with VECM Approach

Authors

  • Muhammad Rahadi Siregar Politeknik Statistika STIS, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Karini Halma Politeknik Statistika STIS, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Risma Alifiyanti Politeknik Statistika STIS, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Fitri Kartiasih Politeknik Statistika STIS, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v9i2.26339

Keywords:

extreme poverty, CO2 emissions, economic growth, environmental quality

Abstract

Two sustainable development goals, poverty reduction and environmental quality, present challenges in Indonesia. While extreme poverty in Indonesia declined from 1990 to 2022, CO2 emissions rose, making Indonesia vulnerable to achieving these goals. This study investigates the conflict between extreme poverty alleviation and environmental quality improvement as measured by CO2 emissions, focusing on the relationship between the two. Using 1990-2022 time series data and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, the results show that economic growth reduces extreme poverty but increases CO2 emissions. In addition, improving human quality (HDI) reduces CO2 emissions and extreme poverty. These findings confirm the relationship between economic growth, poverty alleviation, and environmental quality. Therefore, the government must adjust its economic development policies to be environmentally friendly and support improving human quality to overcome this challenge.

References

Afzal, M., Ehsan Malik, M., Begum, I., Sarwar, K., & Fatima, H. (n.d.). Relationship among Education, Poverty and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis. In Journal of Elementary Education 22(1).

Ahmed, K., Rehman, M. U., & Ozturk, I. (2017). What drives carbon dioxide emissions in the long-run? Evidence from selected South Asian Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70, 1142–1153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.018

Baek, J. (2016). Do nuclear and renewable energy improve the environment? Empirical evidence from the United States. Ecological Indicators, 66, 352–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.01.059

Baloch, M. A., Danish, Khan, S. U.-D., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2020a). Poverty and vulnerability of environmental degradation in Sub-Saharan African countries: what causes what? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 54, 143–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.04.007

Baloch, M. A., Danish, Khan, S. U.-D., Ulucak, Z. Ş., & Ahmad, A. (2020). Analyzing the relationship between poverty, income inequality, and CO2 emission in Sub-Saharan African countries. Science of The Total Environment, 740, 139867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139867

Bölük, G., & Mert, M. (2015). The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: An ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 587–595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.138

Dhrifi, A., Jaziri, R., & Alnahdi, S. (2020). Does foreign direct investment and environmental degradation matter for poverty? Evidence from developing countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 13–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.09.008

Do Miswa, S., & Kartiasih, F. (2025). Nexus between rural poverty and environmental quality: empirical evidence from Indonesia. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-024-00370-6

Ebunoluwa, O. O., & Yusuf, W. A. (n.d.). Effects of Economic Growth on Poverty Reduction In Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(5), 25–29. https://doi.org/10.9790/5933-0905012529

Fodha, M., & Zaghdoud, O. (2010). Economic growth and pollutant emissions in Tunisia: An empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve. Energy Policy, 38(2), 1150–1156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.002

Garza-Rodriguez, J. (2018). Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico. Social Sciences, 7(10), 183. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci7100183

Grunewald, N., Klasen, S., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Muris, C. (2017). The Trade-off Between Income Inequality and Carbon Dioxide Emissions. Ecological Economics, 142, 249–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.06.034

Guo, J., Chen, C., Jiang, S., & Zhou, Y. (2018). Feasibility and Mechanism of Combined Conditioning with Coagulant and Flocculant to Enhance Sludge Dewatering. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, 6(8), 10758–10765. https://doi.org/10.1021/acssuschemeng.8b02086

Guo, J., Jiang, S., & Pang, Y. (2019). Rice straw biochar modified by aluminum chloride enhances the dewatering of the sludge from municipal sewage treatment plant. Science of The Total Environment, 654, 338–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.429

Guo, J., & Zhou, Y. (2020). Transformation of heavy metals and dewaterability of waste activated sludge during the conditioning by Fe2+-activated peroxymonosulfate oxidation combined with rice straw biochar as skeleton builder. Chemosphere, 238, 124628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.124628

Haider, L. J., Boonstra, W. J., Peterson, G. D., & Schlüter, M. (2018). Traps and Sustainable Development in Rural Areas: A Review. World Development, 101, 311–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.038

Hasanah, R., & Wu, J. (2023). Regional Emission Disparities and Environmental Governance in Indonesia. Journal of Environmental Research and Sustainability Science (JERSS), 2(1), 45–60. https://doi.org/10.12345/jerss.2023.045

Jian, J., Fan, X., He, P., Xiong, H., & Shen, H. (2019). The Effects of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Financial Development on CO2 Emissions in China: A VECM Approach. Sustainability, 11(18), 4850. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11184850

Kartiasih, F., & Pribadi, W. (2020). Environmental Quality and Poverty Assessment in Indonesia. Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management), 10(1), 89–97. https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsl.10.1.89-97

Koçak, E., & Çelik, B. (2022). The nexus between access to energy, poverty reduction and PM2.5 in Sub-Saharan Africa: New evidence from the generalized method of moments estimators. Science of The Total Environment, 827, 154377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154377

Lee, S., & Oh, D.-W. (2015). Economic growth and the environment in China: Empirical evidence using prefecture level data. China Economic Review, 36, 73–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2015.08.009

Li, F., Qiu, Z., Zhang, J., Liu, C., Cai, Y., Xiao, M., & Zhu, L. (2019). Temporal variation of major nutrients and probabilistic eutrophication evaluation based on stochastic-fuzzy method in Honghu Lake, Middle China. Science China Technological Sciences, 62(3), 417–426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-017-9264-8

Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1

Masron, T. A., & Subramaniam, Y. (2019). Does Poverty Cause Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Developing Countries. Journal of Poverty, 23(1), 44–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/10875549.2018.1500969

Oktavilia, S., Wahyu Puspita, D., & Sugiyanto, F. (n.d.). The Relationship Between Environmental Degradation, Poverty and Human Quality in Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201873

Raihan, A., Hasan, Md. A., Voumik, L. C., Pattak, D. C., Akter, S., & Ridwan, M. (2024). Sustainability in Vietnam: Examining economic growth, energy, innovation, agriculture, and forests’ impact on CO2 emissions. World Development Sustainability, 4, 100164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2024.100164

Setyadharma, A., Oktavilia, S., Nihayah, D. M., Bowo, P. A., & Wahyuningrum, I. F. S. (2020). The trade-off between Poverty and Environmental Degradation: Evidence from Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 448(1), 012065. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/448/1/012065

Shujah-ur-Rahman, Chen, S., Saleem, N., & Bari, M. W. (2019). Financial development and its moderating role in environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(19), 19305–19319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05290-z

Widiastuti, T., Mawardi, I., Zulaikha, S., Herianingrum, S., Robani, A., Al Mustofa, M. U., & Atiya, N. (2022). The nexus between Islamic social finance, quality of human resource, governance, and poverty. Heliyon, 8(12), e11885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11885

Zeng, J., Liu, T., Feiock, R., & Li, F. (2019). The impacts of China’s provincial energy policies on major air pollutants: A spatial econometric analysis. Energy Policy, 132, 392–403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.05.052

Downloads

Published

2025-08-31

How to Cite

Siregar, M. R., Halma, K., Alifiyanti, R., & Kartiasih, F. (2025). Nexus between Extreme Poverty and CO2 Emissions in Indonesia: An Empirical Investigation with VECM Approach. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 9(2), 264–281. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v9i2.26339

Issue

Section

Articles