Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences

How Regional Economic Growth, Population, and Manufacturing Value-Added Contribute to Regional Labor Force Participation

Muhammad Farid Alfarisy — 2025-08-11

This study investigates the relationship between manufacturing value-added, GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product), and population growth on the labor participation rate in the region. The sample comprises 16 provinces in total. It consists of 10 provinces that experienced economic growth rates lower than the national growth rate between 2017 and 2019. The remaining six provinces have economic growth that exceeded the average national economic growth from 2017 to 2019. These 6 provinces are located on Java Island, and the other 10 provinces are located outside Java Island. Thus, we also added the province location variable to our analysis. We employed panel data regression to estimate the data. This study finds that the region’s economic and population growth substantially impacts the region’s labor participation rate. While the manufacturing value-added, the labor productivity rate, and the location do not significantly affect the labor participation rate of the region. Since economic and population growth are significant factors influencing labor force participation, some government policies should prioritize promoting sustainable economic development and attracting people to the province. The result of the study on the effect of manufacturing value-added and labor productivity shows that it has no impact on labor participation rates. This suggests that policies aimed solely at boosting manufacturing output or labor productivity may not automatically translate into higher labor force participation. Policymakers should, therefore, diversify their focus to other sectors, such as services or technology, that might better encourage workforce engagement.

The Influence of Macroeconomic Indicators on Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia

Lestari Sukarniati — 2025-08-11

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic indicators such as exports, imports, inflation, exchange rates, and the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia during the 2010-2023 period. The research methodology employed is multiple linear regression analysis and the Error Correction Model (ECM) with monthly time series data. The results indicate that exports, inflation, and exchange rates significantly affect Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in the long run. Exports and exchange rates have a positive effect, while inflation also positively affects foreign exchange reserves. Conversely, the benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) has a significant adverse impact. In the short term, only inflation and exchange rate have a significant effect, negatively impacting foreign exchange reserves. This research contributes original value to the literature by integrating a broad set of macroeconomic indicators into a single, comprehensive model. This approach is seldom found in previous studies. Whereas earlier research typically assessed these variables in isolation or limited combinations, this study concurrently examines their collective impact within a consistent ECM framework over a 14-year monthly dataset. As such, this study enhances the current understanding of the short- and long-term macroeconomic dynamics affecting foreign exchange reserves and provides valuable insights for policymakers in formulating external sector strategies.

Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policy on Banking Credit Growth in Indonesia (2015-2023)

Marita Asri Cendani — 2025-08-12

The COVID-19 pandemic shows that macroprudential policy is one of the crucial instruments in mitigating economic shocks and ensuring the financial system. This study examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on banking credit growth in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023 by analyzing the impact of the Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI), Minimum Reserve Requirement (GWM), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), and Non-Performing Loans (NPL). This study aims to give regulators insights into optimizing policy combinations to mitigate financial risks while supporting sustainable economic growth. The results of panel data regression revealed that DTI and CAR significantly impact banking credit growth. In contrast, GWM and NPL didn’t have a significant effect. These findings emphasize the critical role of macroprudential policies in maintaining a balance between credit growth and financial stability, especially in times of economic uncertainty. This study contributes to policymakers and financial regulators optimizing macroprudential frameworks to enhance financial resilience and support sustainable credit distribution in Indonesia’s banking sector.

Analysis of Banking Stock Performance Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)

Cherilyn Cristine Tompo — 2025-08-22

This study analyzes the performance differences of Indonesia’s banking sector stocks, represented by the Infobank15 index, before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using ANOVA and Post Hoc Testing, the study finds no significant differences in stock returns across these three periods despite the substantial economic disruption caused by the pandemic. Like other industries, the banking sector faced a downturn at the start of the pandemic but managed to recover. This finding underscores that the banking sector maintained stability across different periods due to the strong financial fundamentals, including consistent Non-Performing Loan (NPL) and Return on Assets (ROA) ratios throughout the pandemic. The government’s support, such as credit restructuring policies and digitalization of banking services, facilitated the sector’s adaptation to economic challenges, allowing for continued operations despite social restrictions. The study highlights that the banking sector’s ability to expand its digital services mitigated the crisis's immediate impacts and positioned it as an attractive option for investors seeking stability. This study offers insights for policymakers and adds to the literature on the banking sector’s resilience during global crises.

Determinants of Crime Rate: The Case from Regions of Mindanao, Philippines

Kathylene Mae C Cañada — 2025-08-22

This study examines the factors influencing crime rates across various regions in Mindanao, Philippines, from 2009 to 2022, addressing its economic and security challenges. Like many developing countries in Asia, the Philippines faces disparities in economic growth, with Mindanao lagging behind other areas in terms of development. This issue is further intensified by travel advisories from foreign governments, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, impacting tourism and foreign investment. By analyzing GRDP per capita, mean years of education, unemployment rate, urban population, police operating expenses, and police visibility, the research uses panel regression analysis to determine significant crime predictors. Results show that mean years of education have a considerable positive relationship with crime rates, suggesting that higher education levels may be linked to increased crime, particularly through the involvement of educated individuals in sophisticated crimes, such as white-collar crime or drug-related activities. Meanwhile, police visibility has a significant negative relationship with crime rates, indicating that a higher police presence is an effective deterrent, as criminals are reluctant to engage in criminal activities when a strong police presence is evident. Other variables, such as GRDP per capita, unemployment rate, urban population, and police operating expenses, were insignificant. These findings underscore the complexity of crime factors and the necessity for strategic police allocation and education reforms, providing insights for policymakers in addressing crime. The study’s implications extend beyond the Philippines, offering insights for other countries facing similar challenges in balancing economic growth and crime prevention.