Forecasting Analysis : The Riau Islands Local Government Role In Covid-19 Disaster Management

Ramadhani Setiawan, Mahadiansar Mahadiansar

Abstract


Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO) menetapkan COVID-19 sebagai pandemi bencana internasional. Strategi pencegahan COVID-19 membutuhkan peran pemerintah internasional, pemerintah nasional, dan juga pemerintah daerah. Kepulauan Riau yang strategis lebih dekat dengan negara tetangga, yang akan membuat pemerintah lebih waspada terhadap penanggulangan bencana saat ini dan di masa depan, yang akan memungkinkannya menghadapi fase normal baru setelah COVID-19. Penulisan ini difokuskan pada opini analisis peramalan (Dunn, 2018) yang mengidentifikasi perkembangan masa depan. Studi yang digunakan untuk studi literatur yang mengulas pasca-COVID-19 yang terjadi di Kepulauan Riau (analisis konten). Peneliti menyarankan dua skenario yang mungkin, untuk skenario pertama yang melibatkan gelombang COVID-19 kedua karena kelemahan dalam penanggulangan bencana. Lalu yang kedua, skenario normal baru akan berlanjut dengan menerapkan prakiraan kebijakan. Peneliti juga telah memberikan alternatif model peramalan kebijakan dengan pendekatan analisis peramalan: the Potential Future,Konsep Masa Depan yang Masuk Akal,  dan Masa Depan Normatif . Model kebijakan peramalan ini diharapkan dapat menjadi pedoman penanggulangan bencana oleh pemerintah daerah di Indonesia.


Keywords


Disaster Management; Coronavirus; Local Government; The Riau Islands

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Document

Circular Of The Minister Of Home Affairs Number 440/2622/ SJ On Formation Of Task Force Acceleration Of Handling Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) by Regional Government.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jgp.113121

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