DETERMINAN INFLASI DARI SISI SUPPLY (COST-PUSH INFLATION) DI INDONESIA

Muhammad Anif Afandi

Abstract


Abstract: This research aims to analyze the determinants of inflation from supply side (cost-push inflation) in Indonesia. The dependent variable used is the CPI inflation while, the independent variable in the form of fuel prices, the exchange rate of Rupiah, nominal wages, and the BI Rate. The data used in this research is a monthly for the period 2008:1-2014:12 the SDDS derived from BI and Statistics of Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. The estimation tool used in this research is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using the help of EViews 7.0.0.1. Estimation results show that in the short term the variable CPI inflation itself, fuel prices, the exchange rate of the Rupiah, and the nominal wage effect significantly to CPI inflation in Indonesia. While, the BI Rate, variable have no effect significantly to CPI inflation. In the long term, the results of the estimation shows that the variable fuel prices, the exchange rate of the Rupiah, and the BI Rate effect significantly to CPI inflation. While the nominal wage, the variable have no effect significantly to CPI inflation in the long run. VECM estimation results in this research also generates important analysis, namely the IRF (Impulse Response Function) and VDC (Variance Decomposition).

 

Abstrak: Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis determinan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di Indonesia. Variabel dependen yang digunakan adalah inflasi IHK sedangkan, variabel independen berupa harga BBM, nilai tukar Rupiah, upah nominal, dan BI Rate. Data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah bulanan selama periode 2008:1-2014:12 yang bersumber dari SDDS BI dan Statisik Harga BBM Kementrian ESDM. Alat estimasi yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) menggunakan bantuan EViews 7.0.0.1. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek variabel inflasi IHK itu sendiri, harga BBM, nilai tukar Rupiah, dan upah nominal berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi IHK di Indonesia. Sedangkan, variabel BI Rate tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi IHK. Dalam jangka panjang, hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga BBM, nilai tukar Rupiah, dan BI Rate berpengatuh signifikan terhadap inflasi IHK. Sedangkan, variabel upah nominal tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi IHK dalam jangka panjang. Hasil estimasi VECM dalam studi ini juga menghasilkan analisis penting, yaitu IRF (Impulse Response Function) dan VDC (Variance Decomposition).


Keywords


cost-push inflation; impulse response function; variance decomposition; VECM

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