The impact of gross domestic product, exchange rates and ACFTA implementation on Indonesia’s trade intensity index

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Published: May 28, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v25i1.22191
Keywords:
Trade Intensity Index, GDP, Exchange Rate, ACFTA

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Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Special Region of Yogyakarta
Adinda Salshabilla Zhauza Huda
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Special Region of Yogyakarta
Jarita Duasa
Department of Economics, Kulliyah of Economics and Management Sciences, Internasional Islamic University Malaysia

Abstract

The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) represents a critical agreement between ASEAN member countries and China, aimed at fostering economic integration by eliminating or reducing trade barriers, enhancing service market access, refining investment regulations, and bolstering economic cooperation. This framework is designed to strengthen economic ties and enhance welfare across the involved nations. This study evaluates the impact of the ACFTA on trade dynamics by analyzing the Trade Intensity Index (TII), GDP, exchange rates, and a dummy variable representing the ACFTA's implementation. Utilizing annual data from 2001 to 2021, sourced from the UN-Comtrade Database and the World Bank, the research employs the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to provide insights into the trade relationships under the ACFTA framework. The findings indicate a divergent impact, while Indonesia experiences a negative and significant influence from GDP, exchange rates, and ACFTA implementation, the ASEAN-6 countries display a positive and significant effect. Moreover, the study reveals that Indonesia's Trade Intensity Index with other ACFTA members is comparatively lower than Malaysia’s. This suggests a need for targeted trade policies in Indonesia aimed at amplifying export volumes in sectors where it holds a comparative advantage. Such strategies could significantly enhance Indonesia's trade intensity within the ACFTA, fostering greater economic integration and benefits under this expansive regional trade agreement.

Article Details

How to Cite
Wardani, D. T. K., Huda, A. S. Z., & Duasa, J. (2024). The impact of gross domestic product, exchange rates and ACFTA implementation on Indonesia’s trade intensity index. Jurnal Ekonomi &Amp; Studi Pembangunan, 25(1), 62–77. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v25i1.22191
Issue
Vol. 25 No. 1: April 2024
Section
Articles

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