The profitability of Indonesian infrastructure companies amid COVID-19: Quantile regression for stability testing
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v26i1.24971Keywords:
Crisis, COVID-19 Pandemic, Profitability, Indonesian Infrastructure Companies, Quantile RegressionAbstract
: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the global economy, including Indonesia, adversely affecting financial performance, particularly profitability, in sectors such as infrastructure, which are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. This study aims to examine the profitability of Indonesian infrastructure companies during the COVID-19 crisis period. Using annual GDP growth (GDPG) as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions and return on assets (ROA) as a measure of profitability, the study incorporates control variables in an empirical model. A sample of 41 companies was selected through purposive sampling, and Quantile Regression was employed to test stability across various quantile distributions of the endogenous variable. The findings reveal that infrastructure companies experienced a decline in profitability during the crisis years of 2020 and 2021 compared to the pre-crisis period, with profitability improving in 2022 as GDP growth rebounded. Robustness checks confirm consistent results across quantiles 0.1 to 0.7, indicating stability in low (τ = 0.1–0.3) and medium (τ = 0.4–0.6) profitability levels. However, the relationship was unstable at higher quantiles (τ = 0.7–0.9), with significant effects observed only at τ = 0.7. These empirical findings suggest managerial implications for corporate executives and financial decision-makers within Indonesian infrastructure companies, emphasizing the need for operational strategy adaptations, including cash flow efficiency, revenue diversification, and risk mitigation, to navigate macroeconomic dynamics and capitalize on economic recovery opportunities.
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