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Forecasting Analysis of Share Price Index in Construction Companies Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019
Abstract
Stock is one of the investment instruments that many investors choose, both short and long term. Meanwhile, the stock price index is an essential indicator for investors deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This study aims to determine what methods are suitable for predicting the Stock Price Index of Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. By selecting a model that matches the existing time series data, to evaluate the results of the forecasting, the researcher uses a measure of accuracy with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). This type of research is a quantitative study with a research population of 16 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Only four samples were used that fit the specified criteria, and only five years of research were conducted, namely in 2015 to 2019. data can be seen from historical data or actual data and tested using Minitab software version 19. The results showed that Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's) and Double Moving Average Method could be used to forecast the Construction Company Stock Price Index. Obtaining the smallest error value of the four construction companies, namely WSKT company with MAPE = 7.3, MAD = 148.8, and MSD = 40506.0 for the Holt'sand MAPE method = 5.3, MAD = 110.1, and MSD = 22006.9 for the Double Moving Average method.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v5i1.11044
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