Climate Change and International Conflict: How Climate Change’s Impact on the Nile Affects Egypt-Ethiopia Conflict

Rafsyanjani Mohammad

Abstract


This article aims to explain the influence of climate change on the international conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. Climate change phenomenon was already felt in various parts of the world, but its impact will be more significant if it hits hotspot areas such as the Nile. Therefore, first, the author will describe a literature review of relations between climate change and international conflict. Second, the article will explain how the climate change phenomenon in the Nile is resulting in some security risks, especially toward Egypt. The result of this research concludes that the climate change phenomenon in the Nile can exacerbate the conflict escalation between Egypt and Ethiopia along with security threats in Egyptian water, food, and economy as the result of climate change. Although many who doubt the possibility of armed conflict, Nile’s condition as one of the hotspots areas of climate change and coupled with the absence of comprehensive international river management make all options are still counted and must be undertaken cautiously.

Keywords


climate change; international conflict; Egypt; Ethiopia; Nile

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abebe, W. B., G/Michael, T., Leggesse, E. S., Beyene, B. S., & Nigate, F. (2017). Climate of Lake Tana Basin. In K. Stave, G. G. Yemer, & S. Aynalem (Eds.), Social and Ecological System: Dynamics Characteristics, Trends, and Integration in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia (1st ed., pp. 51–58). Springer International Publishing. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-45755-0

Carles, A. (2006). Power Asymmetry and Conflict over Water Resources in the Nile River Basin: the Egyptian Hydro-hegemony. King’s College London.

Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). The World Factbook: Egypt. Retrieved December 11, 2019, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html

Council of the European Union, & European Commission. (2008). Climate Change and International Security: Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council. https://doi.org/10.2860/50106

Davies, K., & Riddell, T. (2017). The Warming War: How Climate Change is Creating Threats to International Peace and Security. The Georgetown Environmental Law Review, 30(1), 47–74. https://www.law.georgetown.edu/environmental-law-review/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2018/05/30-1-The-Warming-War-How-Climate-Change-is-Creating-Threats-to-International-Peace-and-Security.pdf

Harb, I. K. (2019). River of the Dammed. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/river-of-the-dammed/

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (M. Parry, O. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. van der Linden, & C. Hanson (eds.); 1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1177/1086026611419862

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2018). Summary for Policymakers of Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. . Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, & T. Waterfield (eds.)). https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf%0Ahttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

Karas, T. H. (2003). Global Climate Change and International Security. https://prod-ng.sandia.gov/techlib-noauth/access-control.cgi/2003/034114.pdf

Lawson, F. H. (2017). Egypt versus Ethiopia: The Conflict over the Nile Metastasizes. The International Spectator, 52(4), 129–144. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2017.1333272

Levine, S., Peters, K., & Fan, L. (2014). Conflict, Climate Change and Politics: Why a Techno-centric Approach Fails the Resilience Challenge (Issue February 2014). https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/8825.pdf

Lippert, T. H. (2016). NATO, Climate Change, and International Security: A Risk Governance Approach [Pardee RAND Graduate School]. https://doi.org/10.7249/rgsd387

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. (2018). Climate Change Profile: Egypt. www.government.nl/foreign-policy-evaluations

Newman, N. (2019). How climate change could impact the Nile. Eniday. https://www.eniday.com/en/human_en/climate-change-impact-nile/

Scheffran, J. (2008). Climate Change and Security. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 64(2), 19–25. https://doi.org/10.2968/064002007

Schlanger, Z. (2019). 250 million people rely on the Nile for water that may not exist by 2080. Quartz. https://qz.com/1709757/climate-change-threatens-the-niles-critical-water-supply/

Shay, S. (2018). The “Renaissance Dam” Crisis. Herzliya Conference Papers. https://www.idc.ac.il/en/research/ips/2018/documents/shaulshayrenaissance damen22.4.2018a.pdf

Swain, A. (1997). Ethiopia, the Sudan, and Egypt: The Nile River dispute. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 35(4), 675–694. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X97002577

United Nations Climate Change Secretariat. (2019). Climate Action and Support Trends 2019. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Climate_Action_Support_Trends_2019.pdf

United Nations Environment Programme. (2013). Adaptation to Climate-change Induced Water Stress in the Nile Basin: A Vulnerability Assessment Report. https://na.unep.net/siouxfalls/publications/Nile_Basin.pdf

United States Agency for International Development. (2018). Climate Risk Profile: Egypt. https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2018_USAID-ATLAS-Project_Climate-Risk-Profile-Egypt.pdf

Vogler, J. (2014). Environmental Issues. In J. Baylis, S. Smith, & P. Owens (Eds.), The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations (6th ed., pp. 341–356). Oxford University Press.

World Bank. (n.d.-a). World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Egypt. Retrieved December 10, 2019, from https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/egypt

World Bank. (n.d.-b). World Bank Open Data. Retrieved December 16, 2019, from https://data.worldbank.org

Zeidan, B. A. (2013). Water Conflicts in the Nile River Basin : Impacts on Egypt Water Resources Management and Road Map. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4414.3849

Zeleke, T. T., & Damtie, B. (2017). Temporal and Spatial Climate Variability and Trends Over Abay (Blue Nile) River Basin. In K. Stave, G. G. Yemer, & S. Aynalem (Eds.), Social and Ecological System: Dynamics Characteristics, Trends, and Integration in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia (1st ed., pp. 59–75). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45755-0_6




DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jiwp.4254

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Journal JIWP Indexed by:

       

 

Office:

Journal of Islamic World and Politics, Magister Hubungan Internasional Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Jl. Brawijaya (Lingkar Selatan), Tamantirto, Kasihan, Bantul, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Whatsapp: +62823-2679-6566 Email: jiwp@umy.university

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) license.