Exploring illiquidity risk pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic era: Evidence from international financial markets

Abstract

Research aims: Illiquidity risk is one of the complex issues that institutional investors and market participants continually face over time. It is because the constructs of illiquidity risk are sometimes complicated, robust, and not so evident in secondary markets. Hence, this study aims to empirically explore illiquidity risk before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to understand how much investors were expected to lose if they invested in stock markets during these periods.
Design/Methodology/Approach: This study used a GARCH model and the Amihud illiquidity ratio to achieve its objective. Trading volumes and price returns for the JSE, CAC 40, DAX, Nasdaq, BIST 100, and SSE were from June 30, 2017, to June 30, 2019, and January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021.
Research findings: As expected, the findings revealed higher illiquidity risk during periods of financial distress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. During the financial crisis, investors could lose up to $22268.44 a day in less developed markets, such as the JSE, while the average loss in developed markets ranged between $0.22 to $11.53 in the Nasdaq and DAX, respectively. On average, a much lower figure was observed before the financial crisis. The BIST100, CAC 40, DAX, and Nasdaq are excellent options for those seeking lower-risk premiums.
Theoretical and Practitioner/Policy implication: Policies such as adequate market microstructure and greater transparency in trading are strongly recommended for less developed markets, especially during periods of financial distress. Also, the findings of this study provide valuable insight into short-term traders and market participants attracted to liquid markets, where they can easily enter and exit their positions with minimal transaction costs. To the author's knowledge, this paper is the first to model illiquidity risk in stock markets.
Research limitation/Implication: It is possible that the current study did not accurately capture the cost of illiquidity in the sampled financial markets and cannot be applied to other financial markets.